Elle's Football Picks

Weekly football picks, scored against reality. No hype, just receipts.

Every fixture from 8 leagues, rated by a stats model. Each card gives you a Safe pick (the model's main call) and a Spicy one (where the bookies look wrong). Picks by league below — running P&L on Bankroll, every result on History.

See top picks → Browse the stats →

Why decimal vs fraction? · About the model

This Week

21 fixtures

across 3 leagues

Green — Safe pick
Hot yellow — Spicy with edge
Amber — Spicy, no edge
Red % — Bookie has the value

18+ | Gamble responsibly | Odds may change | No guarantee of profit · More info

🇬🇧 Premier League England 10 fixtures

SUN Sunderland vs CHE Chelsea

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Lean

CHE win

1–2

48% · 2.07 for CHE win

Spicy 🌶

SUN win

2–1

30% · 3.38 for SUN win

Score 2–1 (model fair): 7.3% · 13.78

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H35% D35% A30%

SUN win 30% 3.38 —

Draw 22% 4.55 —

●CHE win 48% 2.07 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 22% 4.56 —

2 goals 24% 4.21 —

3 goals 21% 4.77 —

4+ goals 33% 3.00 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 58% 1.72 —

Over 2.5 goals 54% 1.84 —

Over 3.5 goals 33% 3.00 —

SUN clean sheet 22% 4.62 —

CHE clean sheet 27% 3.73 —

SUN Regis Le Bris · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WWLLD

xG1.25 xGA1.68 Poss46% Shots11.2 Corners3.9

CHE Liam Rosenior · 5-4-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLLLL

xG1.86 xGA1.25 Poss59% Shots14.3 Corners6.8

BHA Brighton Hove vs MUN Man United

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

BHA win

2–1

44% · 2.28 for BHA win

Spicy 🌶

MUN win

1–2

32% · 3.13 for MUN win

Score 1–2 (model fair): 7.0% · 14.35

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

●BHA win 44% 2.28 —

Draw 24% 4.14 —

MUN win 32% 3.13 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 19% 5.17 —

2 goals 23% 4.34 —

3 goals 21% 4.65 —

4+ goals 36% 2.77 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 62% 1.62 —

Over 2.5 goals 58% 1.74 —

Over 3.5 goals 36% 2.77 —

BHA clean sheet 24% 4.08 —

MUN clean sheet 19% 5.21 —

BHA Fabian Hurzeler · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WWDWL

xG1.41 xGA1.11 Poss54% Shots12.4 Corners4.7

MUN Michael Carrick · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DLWWW

xG1.34 xGA1.36 Poss51% Shots13.7 Corners5.1

CRY Crystal Palace vs ARS Arsenal

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

ARS win

0–1

62% · 1.61 for ARS win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

19% · 5.15 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 12.5% · 8.02

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H0% D50% A50%

CRY win 19% 5.37 —

Draw 19% 5.15 —

●ARS win 62% 1.61 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 24% 4.22 —

2 goals 25% 4.05 —

3 goals 21% 4.68 —

4+ goals 30% 3.31 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 54% 1.85 —

Over 2.5 goals 52% 1.94 —

Over 3.5 goals 30% 3.31 —

CRY clean sheet 19% 5.32 —

ARS clean sheet 34% 2.92 —

CRY Oliver Glasner · 3-4-3

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWDLL

xG1.41 xGA1.25 Poss52% Shots11.2 Corners4.6

ARS Mikel Arteta · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLLWW

xG1.59 xGA0.95 Poss52% Shots13.4 Corners5.3

BUR Burnley vs WOL Wolverhampton

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Lean

BUR win

1–0

47% · 2.13 for BUR win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

28% · 3.52 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 13.2% · 7.59

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H35% D35% A30%

●BUR win 47% 2.13 —

Draw 28% 3.52 —

WOL win 25% 4.05 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 27% 3.73 —

2 goals 25% 3.92 —

3 goals 21% 4.70 —

4+ goals 26% 3.78 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 53% 1.88 —

Over 2.5 goals 48% 2.09 —

Over 3.5 goals 26% 3.78 —

BUR clean sheet 30% 3.29 —

WOL clean sheet 24% 4.12 —

BUR Scott Parker · 5-4-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLLLL

xG0.82 xGA2.12 Poss42% Shots9.3 Corners4.0

WOL Rob Edwards · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DLLLD

xG0.86 xGA1.85 Poss44% Shots10.2 Corners3.2

FUL Fulham vs NEW Newcastle

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

FUL win

2–1

38% · 2.63 for FUL win

Spicy 🌶

NEW win

1–2

37% · 2.68 for NEW win

Score 1–2 (model fair): 7.8% · 12.88

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

●FUL win 38% 2.63 —

Draw 25% 4.06 —

NEW win 37% 2.68 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 22% 4.59 —

2 goals 24% 4.17 —

3 goals 21% 4.68 —

4+ goals 33% 3.04 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 59% 1.69 —

Over 2.5 goals 54% 1.84 —

Over 3.5 goals 33% 3.04 —

FUL clean sheet 23% 4.28 —

NEW clean sheet 24% 4.18 —

FUL Marco Silva · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLDWL

xG1.38 xGA1.43 Poss50% Shots13.7 Corners4.7

NEW Eddie Howe · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLLLW

xG1.63 xGA1.83 Poss50% Shots13.2 Corners4.6

LIV Liverpool vs BRE Brentford

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

LIV win

2–1

60% · 1.68 for LIV win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

20% · 4.94 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 10.9% · 9.18

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

●LIV win 60% 1.68 —

Draw 20% 4.94 —

BRE win 20% 4.98 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 17% 6.06 —

2 goals 21% 4.76 —

3 goals 21% 4.76 —

4+ goals 41% 2.41 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 64% 1.57 —

Over 2.5 goals 62% 1.60 —

Over 3.5 goals 41% 2.41 —

LIV clean sheet 27% 3.68 —

BRE clean sheet 14% 7.40 —

LIV Arne Slot · 4-2-2-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWWWL

xG1.57 xGA1.37 Poss57% Shots15.3 Corners6.4

BRE Keith Andrews · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DDDLW

xG1.63 xGA1.08 Poss50% Shots11.8 Corners4.7

MCI Man City vs AVL Aston Villa

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

MCI win

2–1

80% · 1.24 for MCI win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

10% · 9.65 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 8.9% · 11.30

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

●MCI win 80% 1.24 —

Draw 10% 9.65 —

AVL win 9% 10.75 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 13% 7.52 —

2 goals 19% 5.24 —

3 goals 21% 4.73 —

4+ goals 46% 2.15 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 62% 1.61 —

Over 2.5 goals 68% 1.48 —

Over 3.5 goals 46% 2.15 —

MCI clean sheet 33% 3.07 —

AVL clean sheet 8% 11.84 —

MCI Pep Guardiola · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DDWWW

xG2.07 xGA1.06 Poss62% Shots18.0 Corners7.2

AVL Unai Emery · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWDWL

xG1.20 xGA1.44 Poss54% Shots13.0 Corners5.0

NOT Nottingham vs BOU Bournemouth

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

NOT win

2–1

37% · 2.71 for NOT win

Spicy 🌶

BOU win

1–2

34% · 2.93 for BOU win

Score 1–2 (model fair): 7.5% · 13.31

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

●NOT win 37% 2.71 —

Draw 29% 3.45 —

BOU win 34% 2.93 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 19% 5.38 —

2 goals 23% 4.37 —

3 goals 21% 4.69 —

4+ goals 37% 2.69 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 62% 1.60 —

Over 2.5 goals 59% 1.71 —

Over 3.5 goals 37% 2.69 —

NOT clean sheet 22% 4.62 —

BOU clean sheet 21% 4.70 —

NOT Vitor Pereira · 4-4-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWDWW

xG1.26 xGA1.21 Poss45% Shots14.5 Corners5.5

BOU Andoni Iraola · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWWDW

xG1.81 xGA1.67 Poss54% Shots14.6 Corners5.5

TOT Tottenham vs EVE Everton

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

EVE win

0–1

39% · 2.56 for EVE win

Spicy 🌶

TOT win

2–1

36% · 2.78 for TOT win

Score 2–1 (model fair): 9.2% · 10.92

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

TOT win 36% 2.78 —

Draw 25% 4.02 —

●EVE win 39% 2.56 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 25% 3.99 —

2 goals 25% 4.01 —

3 goals 21% 4.68 —

4+ goals 29% 3.49 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 55% 1.81 —

Over 2.5 goals 50% 2.00 —

Over 3.5 goals 29% 3.49 —

TOT clean sheet 30% 3.38 —

EVE clean sheet 23% 4.42 —

TOT Roberto De Zerbi · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DLLDW

xG1.05 xGA1.62 Poss46% Shots11.6 Corners5.3

EVE —

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWDLL

xG1.49 xGA1.55 Poss45% Shots12.1 Corners4.5

WHU West Ham vs LEE Leeds United

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

LEE win

1–2

44% · 2.28 for LEE win

Spicy 🌶

WHU win

2–1

30% · 3.32 for WHU win

Score 2–1 (model fair): 7.4% · 13.53

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

WHU win 30% 3.32 —

Draw 26% 3.84 —

●LEE win 44% 2.28 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 19% 5.16 —

2 goals 23% 4.30 —

3 goals 21% 4.67 —

4+ goals 36% 2.78 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 61% 1.63 —

Over 2.5 goals 57% 1.74 —

Over 3.5 goals 36% 2.78 —

WHU clean sheet 19% 5.24 —

LEE clean sheet 25% 3.96 —

WHU Nuno Espirito Santo · 4-4-1-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWDWL

xG1.36 xGA1.26 Poss42% Shots10.7 Corners5.1

LEE Daniel Farke · 3-5-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWWDW

xG1.49 xGA1.26 Poss45% Shots13.4 Corners4.1

🇬🇧 Championship England 1 fixtures

HUL Hull City vs SOU Southampton

Sat 23 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

SOU win

1–2

41% · 2.46 for SOU win

Spicy 🌶

HUL win

2–1

31% · 3.19 for HUL win

Score 2–1 (model fair): 7.6% · 13.24

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

HUL win 31% 3.19 —

Draw 28% 3.57 —

●SOU win 41% 2.46 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 23% 4.39 —

2 goals 24% 4.09 —

3 goals 21% 4.70 —

4+ goals 31% 3.18 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 57% 1.74 —

Over 2.5 goals 53% 1.90 —

Over 3.5 goals 31% 3.18 —

HUL clean sheet 22% 4.48 —

SOU clean sheet 27% 3.65 —

HUL Sergej Jakirovic · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LDDLW

xG1.24 xGA1.59 Poss45% Shots11.6 Corners4.3

SOU Tonda Eckert · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

67%

Star men out Flynn Downes

Form (5) WWDDW

xG1.74 xGA1.28 Poss54% Shots14.6 Corners6.2

🇮🇹 Serie A Italy 10 fixtures

FIO Fiorentina vs ATA Atalanta

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Lean

ATA win

0–1

51% · 1.96 for ATA win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

27% · 3.73 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 13.0% · 7.70

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

FIO win 22% 4.53 —

Draw 27% 3.73 —

●ATA win 51% 1.96 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 28% 3.61 —

2 goals 26% 3.84 —

3 goals 21% 4.72 —

4+ goals 25% 3.99 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 50% 2.00 —

Over 2.5 goals 46% 2.16 —

Over 3.5 goals 25% 3.99 —

FIO clean sheet 22% 4.54 —

ATA clean sheet 36% 2.74 —

FIO Paolo Vanoli · 4-3-3

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWWDD

xG1.35 xGA1.02 Poss48% Shots11.3 Corners3.9

ATA Raffaele Palladino · 3-4-1-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLDLD

xG1.55 xGA1.00 Poss60% Shots15.6 Corners6.7

BOL Bologna vs INT Inter

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

INT win

0–2

79% · 1.27 for INT win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

11% · 8.83 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 10.9% · 9.15

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

BOL win 10% 9.98 —

Draw 11% 8.83 —

●INT win 79% 1.27 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 20% 5.09 —

2 goals 23% 4.31 —

3 goals 22% 4.62 —

4+ goals 36% 2.82 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 54% 1.85 —

Over 2.5 goals 57% 1.75 —

Over 3.5 goals 36% 2.82 —

BOL clean sheet 13% 7.52 —

INT clean sheet 39% 2.60 —

BOL Vincenzo Italiano · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WWLLD

xG1.08 xGA1.15 Poss57% Shots12.5 Corners4.6

INT Cristian Chivu · 3-5-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DWWWD

xG1.65 xGA1.25 Poss58% Shots15.4 Corners5.4

LAZ Lazio vs PIS AC Pisa

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

LAZ win

1–0

79% · 1.26 for LAZ win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

15% · 6.89 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 9.4% · 10.61

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

●LAZ win 79% 1.26 —

Draw 15% 6.89 —

PIS win 6% 16.45 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 25% 4.07 —

2 goals 25% 4.07 —

3 goals 22% 4.46 —

4+ goals 28% 3.52 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 45% 2.24 —

Over 2.5 goals 51% 1.97 —

Over 3.5 goals 28% 3.52 —

LAZ clean sheet 49% 2.05 —

PIS clean sheet 13% 7.55 —

LAZ Maurizio Sarri · 4-3-3

XI strength

67%

Star men out M. Gila

Form (5) WDLWD

xG1.39 xGA0.98 Poss51% Shots11.6 Corners4.0

PIS Oscar Hiljemark · 3-5-1-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLLLL

xG1.08 xGA1.55 Poss42% Shots9.4 Corners3.5

PAR Parma vs SAS Sassuolo

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

PAR win

1–0

40% · 2.49 for PAR win

Spicy 🌶

SAS win

0–2

31% · 3.27 for SAS win

Score 0–2 (model fair): 7.5% · 13.37

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

●PAR win 40% 2.49 —

Draw 29% 3.42 —

SAS win 31% 3.27 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 33% 2.99 —

2 goals 27% 3.72 —

3 goals 20% 4.96 —

4+ goals 19% 5.13 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 46% 2.17 —

Over 2.5 goals 40% 2.52 —

Over 3.5 goals 19% 5.13 —

PAR clean sheet 30% 3.29 —

SAS clean sheet 34% 2.93 —

PAR Carlos Cuesta · 3-5-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LDDWW

xG0.80 xGA1.18 Poss47% Shots11.1 Corners4.8

SAS Fabio Grosso · 4-3-3

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLWDW

xG1.08 xGA1.51 Poss45% Shots9.7 Corners4.2

NAP Napoli vs UDI Udinese

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

NAP win

1–0

64% · 1.57 for NAP win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

20% · 5.03 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 11.6% · 8.59

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H35% D35% A30%

●NAP win 64% 1.57 —

Draw 20% 5.03 —

UDI win 17% 6.04 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 27% 3.74 —

2 goals 25% 3.93 —

3 goals 22% 4.57 —

4+ goals 26% 3.85 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 49% 2.04 —

Over 2.5 goals 48% 2.09 —

Over 3.5 goals 26% 3.85 —

NAP clean sheet 41% 2.45 —

UDI clean sheet 18% 5.62 —

NAP Antonio Conte · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WDLWD

xG1.21 xGA0.81 Poss60% Shots13.6 Corners6.3

UDI Kosta Runjaic · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

67%

Star men out J. Karlstrom

Form (5) DWLDW

xG1.18 xGA1.52 Poss45% Shots12.1 Corners4.7

MIL Milan vs CAG Cagliari

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

MIL win

1–0

68% · 1.47 for MIL win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

20% · 4.97 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 10.5% · 9.51

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H45% D45% A10%

●MIL win 68% 1.47 —

Draw 20% 4.97 —

CAG win 12% 8.57 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 31% 3.28 —

2 goals 26% 3.88 —

3 goals 21% 4.69 —

4+ goals 22% 4.46 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 43% 2.35 —

Over 2.5 goals 44% 2.29 —

Over 3.5 goals 22% 4.46 —

MIL clean sheet 48% 2.07 —

CAG clean sheet 18% 5.60 —

MIL Massimiliano Allegri · 3-5-2

XI strength

67%

Star men out L. Modric

Form (5) LLWDL

xG1.30 xGA0.99 Poss53% Shots13.3 Corners3.8

CAG Fabio Pisacane · 4-5-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWLWD

xG0.89 xGA1.14 Poss43% Shots10.6 Corners3.8

TOR Torino vs JUV Juventus

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

JUV win

0–1

55% · 1.81 for JUV win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

25% · 4.06 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 11.7% · 8.51

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

TOR win 20% 4.97 —

Draw 25% 4.06 —

●JUV win 55% 1.81 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 29% 3.41 —

2 goals 26% 3.86 —

3 goals 21% 4.79 —

4+ goals 24% 4.20 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 45% 2.22 —

Over 2.5 goals 45% 2.24 —

Over 3.5 goals 24% 4.20 —

TOR clean sheet 20% 5.02 —

JUV clean sheet 44% 2.26 —

TOR Leonardo Colucci · 3-5-1-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WWDDL

xG1.28 xGA1.21 Poss42% Shots11.3 Corners3.2

JUV Luciano Spalletti · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WWWDD

xG1.77 xGA0.93 Poss58% Shots16.5 Corners5.7

HVE Verona vs ROM Roma

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Strong

ROM win

0–2

67% · 1.49 for ROM win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

22% · 4.54 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 9.9% · 10.10

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

HVE win 11% 9.30 —

Draw 22% 4.54 —

●ROM win 67% 1.49 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 26% 3.81 —

2 goals 25% 3.95 —

3 goals 22% 4.62 —

4+ goals 27% 3.73 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 41% 2.43 —

Over 2.5 goals 48% 2.06 —

Over 3.5 goals 27% 3.73 —

HVE clean sheet 15% 6.60 —

ROM clean sheet 52% 1.94 —

HVE Paolo Sammarco · 5-3-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLLDD

xG0.81 xGA1.12 Poss42% Shots12.0 Corners4.2

ROM Piero Gasperini Gian · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLWDW

xG1.32 xGA1.16 Poss51% Shots11.1 Corners5.0

CRE Cremonese vs COM Como 1907

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Lean

COM win

0–1

55% · 1.82 for COM win

Spicy 🌶

Draw

1–1

26% · 3.83 for draw

Score 1–1 (model fair): 11.1% · 8.97

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

CRE win 19% 5.28 —

Draw 26% 3.83 —

●COM win 55% 1.82 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 25% 4.03 —

2 goals 25% 3.97 —

3 goals 22% 4.63 —

4+ goals 28% 3.52 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 47% 2.13 —

Over 2.5 goals 50% 2.00 —

Over 3.5 goals 28% 3.52 —

CRE clean sheet 16% 6.20 —

COM clean sheet 44% 2.25 —

CRE Marco Giampaolo · 4-4-2

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) WLLDL

xG0.88 xGA1.62 Poss49% Shots10.1 Corners4.0

COM Cesc Fabregas · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) DLLWD

xG1.52 xGA0.72 Poss60% Shots13.9 Corners4.1

USL Lecce vs GEN Genoa

Sun 24 May

Safe ⓘ Coin flip

Draw

0–0

34% · 2.96 for draw

Spicy 🌶

GEN win

0–2

39% · 2.59 for GEN win

Score 0–2 (model fair): 8.2% · 12.23

Market % Fair Your odds Edge

Match result

vs AF model H10% D45% A45%

USL win 28% 3.63 —

●Draw 34% 2.96 —

GEN win 39% 2.59 —

Total goals

0 or 1 goals 39% 2.53 —

2 goals 27% 3.71 —

3 goals 19% 5.38 —

4+ goals 15% 6.68 —

Other markets

Both teams to score 40% 2.51 —

Over 2.5 goals 34% 2.98 —

Over 3.5 goals 15% 6.68 —

USL clean sheet 34% 2.96 —

GEN clean sheet 39% 2.54 —

USL Eusebio Di Francesco · 4-2-3-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LLDDW

xG0.78 xGA1.75 Poss40% Shots8.7 Corners3.4

GEN Daniele De Rossi · 3-4-2-1

XI strength

100%

Star men out Full strength

Form (5) LWWLD

xG1.20 xGA1.09 Poss50% Shots11.7 Corners3.4

Track Record

backtested on 3319 matches across 8 leagues

52.4% Outcome accuracy vs 43.0% always-home baseline

1.22× More likely than gut feel vs always-back-the-home-team

0.198 Brier score vs 0.216 baseline · lower is better

3,319 Matches scored walk-forward eval, no leakage

How does this stack up?

Why ~55% is the ceiling →

Football outcome accuracy has a hard ceiling around 55%. Closing-line bookmakers sit at the top of that ceiling — they aggregate every signal and billions in liquidity. The "All" pooled number below is across the top-5 European leagues (the same scope the bookie/academic ceilings use).

Pinnacle / Bet365 closing linesindustry ceiling 55.0%

Best academic modelsDixon-Coles, Bivariate Poisson, ML 52.0%

Elle on La Liga710 matches walk-forward · home baseline 46.5% 54.2%

Elle on Ligue 1580 matches walk-forward · home baseline 46.6% 52.9%

Elle on Serie A721 matches walk-forward · home baseline 39.7% 52.3%

Elle on Bundesliga589 matches walk-forward · home baseline 41.0% 51.3%

Elle on Premier League719 matches walk-forward · home baseline 41.6% 51.0%

Elle on League One1092 matches walk-forward · home baseline 44.3% 49.2%

Elle on League Two1094 matches walk-forward · home baseline 42.1% 45.5%

Elle on Championship1102 matches walk-forward · home baseline 43.5% 43.4%

Random guessHome / Draw / Away 33.3%

Caveat: Per-league numbers are walk-forward eval over roughly 600-1,100 matches per division. Margins under ~2pp are inside statistical noise — La Liga sitting near the bookies isn't a "we beat the market" claim, more that La Liga has historically been one of the more predictable top leagues (consistent top-3 dominance, fewer giant-killings). The bookies' 55% is itself a top-5-leagues pooled figure.

Calibration check

When the model says "65% chance", does it actually happen 65% of the time? Each row shows what the model predicted vs what really happened.

Predicted	Observed	Sample
10%	0%	3	-10pp
17%	29%	133	+12pp
26%	27%	797	+2pp
35%	38%	262	+3pp
45%	38%	231	-7pp
54%	45%	152	-9pp
64%	52%	64	-12pp
73%	88%	8	+15pp