Bars = actual count. Dots = what a typical scoring model would expect at this average goals-per-match. The closer they line up, the better the model fits real football.
Home goals vs Away goals — each scored separately
Home goals
Away goals
Each panel uses its own average goals figure. Home teams typically score more — the averages show how big that structural advantage really is.
Actual vs expected — per goal total
Goals
Actual
Expected
Difference
Diff %
Diff % = (Actual − Expected) / Expected. Green = more matches than the model predicts; red = fewer. Neither is "good" — it just shows where real football diverges from the model.
