xPts (expected points) is the points a team would get on average from their xG over many
tries. For each match we work out the probability of each scoreline from the teams' xG,
then award 3×P(win) + 1×P(draw) to each side. The gap between actual points
and xPts shows who has been riding their luck — and who has been unlucky.
—
+0.0
Most overperforming (pts above xPts)
—
−0.0
Most underperforming (pts below xPts)
Lucky vs Unlucky — Championship
xG data isn't available for the Championship — we source xG from Understat, which
only covers the top 5 European leagues. Switch to Premier League to see this page.
xPts leaderboard — who has been lucky and who hasn't
#
Team
MP
Pts
xPts
Luck ▼
Actual points vs xPts — right of zero means lucky, left means unlucky
Bar extends right (green) if the team accumulated more points than their chances deserved.
Left (red) means their results have been harsher than their play warranted.
